Por: Admin
Aug 26, 2016
Ideas
Global demand for energy has grown exponentially since the 19th century. However, new studies by Sanford C. Bernstein & Co claim that this will change in about 40 years. According to Bernstein, energy demand will peak in the 2050s and then decline, while energy consumption per unit of household output will also decline. The 19th century demand boom has already resulted in a decline in population growth and economic expansion, as well as a shift from industrial growth to services growth. “This will be a pivotal moment in human history,” say the analysts: “While it is still unclear who will be the long-term winners in the future of energy, it is easy to see who is looking backwards: in this new world there is no room for high costs or high-carbon energy sources.” Coal consumption is expected to decline around 2020, and oil consumption in the 2030s. The appeal of natural gas and renewable sources will continue, even though the transition to solar and wind power systems is still decades away. Pressure to reduce carbon emissions is intensifying, especially in the wake of the Paris Agreement, a global deal signed in December to curb climate change.
There are already signs that the demand boom is holding up. Per capita energy consumption may have slowed, but global demand could still rise 30% over the next 40 years before it starts to decline.
“The obituary for energy demand still seems premature,” analysts say. “We still need energy to grow.”
Source: Bloomberg