CO2 emissions from electricity generation in Brazil exceed the government's forecast for 2030 in 2014

Last August, CO2 emissions from electricity generation in Brazil reached a historic record, reaching 157.8 kg of CO2 per MWh produced. This value, although still below other countries with “dirtier” electricity grids, is well above the average recorded in the years 2006 to 2010, as shown in figure 1 below.

Source: Prepared by the author based on factors published by the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (2015)

Although the Brazilian government places the blame for the water crisis that mainly affects the south and southeast regions, since a smaller amount of water in hydroelectric reservoirs forces a reduction in generation capacity, the reality is that the country is increasingly dependent on thermal electricity, obtained through the burning of energy, such as natural gas and fuel oil.

The energy load in the country has been increasing progressively, while the maximum energy stored in hydroelectric reservoirs remains practically constant, as shown in figure 2.

Source: Operation History of the National Electric System Operator (ONS) and Energy Research Company (EPE)

Through the analysis of the historical series and future perspectives presented in Figure 2, it is possible to observe that the maximum storable energy of national hydroelectric plants does not keep up with the increase in the energy load over the last decade and there is no forecast that it will keep up, regardless of the amount of rain the country receives.

In the latest National Energy Plan, published by the Energy Research Company in 2008, the government foresees a greater use of thermoelectric plants, so much so that the emissions factor calculated for the 2030 electricity matrix is 156.0 kg of CO2 per MWh (0.156 tons per MWh). However, it is noteworthy that this factor, predicted for 2030, was already reached in one month of 2014, which shows that the future is much closer than before. imagined (figure 3).

Source: Prepared by the authors based on factors published by the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (2015) and the EPE's 2030 National Energy Plan (2008)

The reality is that without long-term energy planning, it is essential to cultivate two fundamental factors: (1) diversification of the generation matrix, constantly and significantly adding other sources (such as wind, solar, small hydroelectric plants, biomass) and (2) promoting the reduction of demand for electricity, through multisectoral energy efficiency programs. Without it, Brazil will be increasingly dependent on fossil fuels, which not only have greater environmental impacts, but also have a higher generation cost.