Oil demand is expected to grow, contrary to the Paris Agreement

Alarming news came this week from the International Energy Agency (IEA). Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, said that global oil consumption will continue to grow through 2040, a development that runs counter to the Paris Agreement signed last year.

Birol made the remarks shortly after the publication of the annual World Energy Outlook. The IEA’s annual report forecasts energy supply and demand through 2040.

The Paris Agreement aims to wean the world off fossil fuels in the second half of the century in an effort to limit the rise in global average temperatures to “just” 2°C (3.6°F) above pre-industrial times.

Despite this, the agreement may not survive a new Trump presidency. The president-elect has called it “a fraud” to believe that humans are responsible for climate change. In addition, Trump voted for the US to withdraw from the landmark agreement.

The consumption of petroleum-based fuels by automobiles, a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, will certainly fall.

But, according to the IEA, this decline will be offset by increases in other sectors. “The difficulty in finding alternatives to oil in road freight transport, aviation and petrochemicals means that, by 2040, growth in these three sectors will outpace the reduction in global oil demand for other uses,” the IEA added. In the central scenario for 2040, global oil demand is estimated to grow by almost 12%, to 103.5 barrels per day (bpd) in 2040, compared with 92.5 million bpd in 2015. Oil consumption could, however, peak before 2040, or even before 2020, if more stringent action were taken, the IEA said.

ENERGY EFFICIENCY IS PART OF THE SOLUTION FOR THE MATRIX

Birol said the fossil fuel era appears far from over. “Today, 81% of global energy comes from fossil fuels. By 2040, even if all the promises are implemented, this share will only fall to 74%,” he says.

The big issue with fossil fuels is energy generation, since a large part of the use of oil and other fuels is for generation. Therefore, reducing consumption is the best way to reduce the need for oil.

Through energy efficiency, it is possible to achieve the lowest levels of emissions.As a bonus, it is also an excellent measure to save on the energy bill.

Source: Forbes